Oct 23rd, 2009| 12:26 pm | Posted by hlee

I watched a movie in which one of the characters said, “*country A has nukes with 80% chance*” (perhaps, not 80% but it was a high percentage). One of the statements in that episode is that *people will not eat lettuce only if the 1% chance of e coli is reported, even lower. Therefore, with such a high percentage of having nukes, it is right to send troops to A.* This episode immediately brought me a thought about astronomers’ null hypothesis probability and their ways of concluding chi-square goodness of fit tests, likelihood ratio tests, or F-tests.

First of all, I’d like to ask how you would like to estimate the chance of having nukes in a country? What this 80% implies here? But, before getting to the question, I’d like to discuss computing the chance of e coli infection, first. Continue reading ‘The chance that A has nukes is p%’ »

Tags:

chances,

chi-square statistic,

composite likelihood,

delta chi-square,

F-test,

fiducial likelihood,

likelihood,

LRT,

p-value,

posterior,

prior Category:

Bayesian,

Cross-Cultural,

Fitting,

Frequentist,

Misc,

Quotes,

Uncertainty |

Comment
Jun 2nd, 2009| 03:03 am | Posted by hlee

Even though I traced the astronomers’ casual usage of the **null hypothesis probability** in a fashion of reporting outputs from data analysis packages of their choice, there were still some curious cases of the **null hypothesis probability** that I couldn’t solve. They are quite mysterious to me. Sometimes too much creativity harms the original intention. Here are some examples. Continue reading ‘Curious Cases of the Null Hypothesis Probability’ »

Tags:

cases,

chi-sq,

curious,

degree of freedom,

dof,

F-test,

goodness-of-fit test,

Model Selection,

null hypothesis probability,

p-value,

reduced chi-sq Category:

arXiv,

Astro,

Cross-Cultural,

Fitting,

Methods,

Uncertainty |

3 Comments
Mar 6th, 2009| 03:42 pm | Posted by hlee

Ah ha~ Once I questioned, “what is systematic error?” (see [Q] systematic error.) Thanks to L. Lyons’ work discussed in [ArXiv] Particle Physics, I found this paper, titled **Systematic Errors** describing the concept and statistical inference related to **systematic errors** in the field of particle physics. It, gladly, shares lots of similarity with high energy astrophysics. Continue reading ‘systematic errors’ »

Tags:

coverage,

Heinrich,

likelihood,

Lyons,

nuisance parameter,

objective priors,

p-value,

particle physics,

statistical error,

subjective priors,

systematic error Category:

Algorithms,

arXiv,

Bayesian,

Cross-Cultural,

Data Processing,

Frequentist,

Jargon,

Misc,

News,

Physics,

Stat,

Uncertainty |

Comment